There’s a rule I’ve come to believe in over the years — something I call the Gas Cap Rule: when something isn’t working, start with the most obvious explanation first.

I call it the Gas Cap Rule because of a scene in Sling Blade. Karl is asked to fix a lawnmower that won’t start. Before doing anything complicated, he checks the gas cap, then says, “It ain’t got no gas in it.”

Problem solved. It’s a reminder that in life, just like in machinery, the answer is often simple — and people miss it because they’re trying too hard to be clever.

I’ve watched smart people overlook the Gas Cap Rule time and time again — in boardrooms, strategy sessions, and once, in a side room at the Missouri Capitol.

Here’s what happened: Back when I was publisher of the Cassville Democrat, I was invited to something called “A Day at the Capitol,” an annual event where journalists from across Missouri spend a day at the center of state government. As part of it, we ate lunch at the governor’s mansion. He comes out, makes a few remarks, then opens the floor to questions from reporters.

You know the saying, “If you’re the smartest person in the room, you’re in the wrong room”? Well, before that 2014 event, let’s just say I was unquestionably in the right room. The two other journalists I was talking with were super sharp — deeply informed, policy fluent, the kind of people who could name every line item in the state budget. I’m no slouch, but in that moment, I wasn’t exactly carrying the policy end of the conversation.

Before heading to the mansion, we stood around spitballing possible questions. The other two tossed out nuanced, off-the-radar policy ideas — the kind of stuff that wasn’t really making headlines.

Eventually, there was a lull. One of them turned to me and asked, “What are you going to ask?”

I replied, flatly: “Are you running for president in 2016?”

Their heads tilted, eyes widened just a bit — then came the slight, knowing nods. No one said anything. Just a pause that said what words didn’t have to.

At the time, Jay Nixon was a second-term Midwestern governor from a swing(able) state with a moderate record and high approval ratings. He checked a lot of boxes that historically got people elected president in those days.

It wasn’t subtle or sophisticated. But it was the Gas Cap Question — the one hiding in plain sight, yet somehow still overlooked.

When I asked the question at the luncheon, the governor gave a long answer with a lot of words — but “no” wasn’t one of them. Neither was “I haven’t thought about it.”

His non-answer said just as much as an answer: he’d considered it, and hadn’t ruled it out.

I’ll never forget the surprised follow-up from the Associated Press reporter in the back of the room, who blurted out, “Governor, that’s not a no! Are you considering this?”

Given a second chance to deny it, he gave another rambling non-answer, then diffused the tension with a joke and moved on.

But everyone in the room already knew what news had just been made.

Guess which answer went national? (Hint: it wasn’t deer farm regulations, or whatever the heck those two were talking about in that room 11 years ago.)

A few days later, the governor backtracked slightly, showing deference to his party’s presumptive nominee — while still, notably, not saying no. I’d love to know what phone calls took place between the press conference and the walkback. Unless I end up having a beer with Nixon, I probably never will. But, I have a pretty good guess.

Nonetheless, a few months later, the governor made a publicized trip to Iowa — a place politicians rarely end up on accident. The governor had presidential ambitions — no matter how slim or strong — and without that question, those ambitions might have stayed buried.

Six months later, Ferguson put his leadership under a microscope. Missourians didn’t like what they saw, and whatever presidential hopes he had quickly evaporated.

Without that, would he have entered the primaries? How far would he have gone? We’ll never know. But national news outlets were referring to him as a “potential 2016 presidential candidate” as late as September. For a good chunk of 2014, it was on the table — and it was being taken seriously.

The Gas Cap Rule isn’t just for lawnmowers. It applies in any room where people are overthinking — where complexity starts drowning out common sense.

Sometimes, the smartest move isn’t the most intricate one. It’s the obvious one no one’s bothered to say out loud.

All it takes is someone willing to ask it.

Jacob Brower was publisher of the Cassville Democrat from 2013-2018. He is now chief strategist for whatslikely.io, and president of Archer’s Bow Media & Marketing and ABM Strategies.